The Appraisal Blog

A sign of things to come?



https://fortune.com/2023/02/14/remote-work-los-angeles-office-building-default-brookfield/

Historic rise in interest rates to a 20 year high, "overvalued" home prices in 210 markets, and a 70% increase in mortgage payments is not good.  And it seems like the worst is yet to come.

 

https://fortune.com/2022/10/13/housing-market-historic-deterioration-told-by-three-charts/

I've been seeing the writing on the wall for months ... increased DOM, increased inventory, reduction in list prices, etc.  But as of yet I have not seen an actual decline in values.  I've seen individual sales lower than previous sales ... but one data point does not make the market.  It happens even in rising markets.  Corelogic is now predicting "very high" odds for price drops for most of the nation.


https://fortune.com/2022/10/10/housing-market-updated-odds-of-falling-home-prices-interactive-map/

Hmmm ... this doesn't seem like an issue to me.  Listing prices are asking prices ... and nothing more.  If people are asking too much for a house they won;t find a buyer and will eventually need to reduce their asking price.  The market will correct this.



https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/most-overpriced-us-cities-homes-home-buyers-real-estate-bethesda-arcadia-new-york-dallas-new-orleans.html

The San Diego housing market continues at the top end of the market ranking 4th in number of million dollar homes ... or 14% of the market!

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-has-big-share-of-million-dollar-homes-lending-tree-statistics-housing-market-real-estate/2175142/

This is a shift we have been watching since last fall when DOM began increasing, reductions in list prices became more prevalent, and inventory began increasing.  There seems to be a bit of a reprieve here in the spring but we will continue to watch the trend.


https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/20/bubble-watch-odds-rise-that-southern-california-home-price-start-to-drop/amp/